With the imminent elections in the U.S and a lot of rigmarole surrounding it, the markets are providing risk free money making opportunities. No one seems totally sure what is going to happen and in this kind of climate arbitrage opportunities tend to present themselves – if you are keeping tabs on the situation.

In case anyone is reading this who does not know what arbitrage is – it is when you take advantage of 2 differing prices in the same market to create a sure fire win scenario for yourself.

Lets take the state of New Mexico as an example. Coral have been offering 10/1 on Trump winning there.

Betfair have been offering lay odds of 7/1.

So if I back Trump with Coral @ £10 I stand to win £100 and risk £10.

If I lay Trump with Betfair @ 7 for £90 I stand to win £15 and risk £90.

I have spent £100.

If Trump wins in New Mexico I win £100 from Coral and lose £90 on Betfair. A £10 (10%) profit.

If Trump loses in New Mexico I win £15 from Betfair and lose £10 from Coral. A £5 (5%) profit.

You can of course change these numbers slightly so you gain the same profit whoever wins by using an arbitrage calculator, but you get the point.

So the next question is, where is the best place to check for these opportunities? The answer seems to be odds checker, who compare prices among all major bookmakers. It is worth keeping an eye on these different states as prices are drifting constantly and many opportunities are there to be had.

 

 

Tennis can be one of the most rewarding sports to trade with huge swings in the market frequently occurring and players able to pick up or indeed lose their form or nerve before the match comes to its conclusion. It has a very different rhythm from many other sports and of course, it has no draw, making things a little simpler.

Whats the first thing to start with when looking at simple and efficient trading techniques for tennis? Well, lets start with the obvious. Same rules apply as with any trade you are doing, whether it be sports or the stock market – buy low, sell high. There are some very recognisable landmarks to this in tennis.

One of my personal favorites is to back a player after going 2 sets down (in the men’s game).You can usually get odds anywhere between 15 and 50 to 1 depending on the match of course. It is usually prudent however, to stay away from the very top players when they go up by 2 sets as they very rarely give this up. When I say top players I am referring to the top 4 (possibly 5 or 6 depending on form and circimstance) in the world. It is however, very interesting to look at players ranked somewhere between 10 – 25 playing an unseeded player – even if the unseeded player is ultimately unsuccessful they are often good enough to take a set or two. If this turn out to be the case you will be in line for a trade out with next to no risk involved.

The same can be applied after 1 set in the woman’s game although rather than counting out the worlds top 4-6 players you can cut that back to pretty much Serena Williams. Every other player in the woman’s game is somewhat susceptible to a fightback.

There are also players who we might regard as ‘wildcards’ (although in some cases this is a particularly unfair title) who are also worth keeping an eye on no matter who they are playing but are not in the worlds top, top echelons. In other words, on their day they can beat anyone, or on a particular surface they punch above their weight. You can often get very favorable odds on these guys if they drop a set or two and will generally offer real value for money:

Men – players to back when behind.

Kevin Anderson (Grass/Hard)

Jerzy Janowicz (Grass)

Gilles Muller (Grass/Hard)

Nicolas Almagro (Clay)

Grigor Dimitrov (Grass/Hard)

Ivo Karlovic (Grass)

Bernard Tomic (All)

 

On the flip side, there are also players who are also carrying high world rankings and in turn short prices, but can be susceptible to a comeback or not thrive in particularly tight games, namely:

Kei Nishikori

Richard Gasquet

 

The Woman’s is a slightly different situation. As a general rule, if you can get a back on at 25/1 with two players both ranked in the top 75 and the leading player still more than a game away from the finish line then that is a decent place to be. As breaks of serve are more common in the woman’s game, if some is ‘serving for the match’ it is not quite the death knell it so often proves to be with the men.

One last note to mention. Remember, you can ask for the odds you want and leave the trade. If the situation occurs then your bet will be matched, if not you keep your money. It is not like football whereby if a goal goals in the bet gets cancelled. If you can set it and forget it then its a good idea to do so.

 

Interested? This article is about trading effectively in The Championship (English football),

 

 

One of the handiest tools when looking to make consistent returns in the sports betting market is to to plan in advance where you will enter and where you must leave it. By doing this, one takes out all emotion while giving a clear and easy decision making process in the chaos around you.

To do this you need to consider a few points.

Firstly, what return are you looking for? It goes without saying that this has to be reasonable and achievable. A figure which is usually quoted by stock market and sports traders alike is 2%. For many of you trading however, you will be looking for bigger returns than this – the type of bets you are placing will really determine what you are looking for. It is however, important to get a number because once you know this, you can define your entry and exit points.

The next thing to have in mind is that generally, you want to have a strict stop loss in place, meaning that your potential loss should not be as much as your potential win. This is important. So lets look an example:

I have £100 I am going to trade with.

I know the market, the bets I want to place and experience tells me that a 3% increase is a reasonable aim (£103).

On the flip side, I want to keep losses minimal and am not willing to lose more than 1% on my bank (£99).

So my tolerance is £99 – £103.

 

This can be automatically programmed on software such as BetAngel or you can do this manually yourself. For ease of use BetAngel is well worth taking a look at, especially if you are looking to make multiple bets.

It is a vital part of this technique to let your profit margins be greater than your loss margins – it is these kind of strict rules which will help yield long term profit.

The moral of this story is always go in with a plan. This makes things simple, avoids pressurised situations, allows one to keep control at all times and strategise for the future with some degree of accuracy.

If you find money management articles useful you may be interested in this one about The Fibonacci management system by following the link.

Happy trading.

Quietrader

 

After the confirmation that Paul Pogba would be signing for Manchester United this morning there has been, as expected, lots of comment in the media from journalists and fans alike. One of the great things about looking at these things from a statistical point of view is that there is no need (unless you want to of course) to get involved in the if’s, why’s and how’s. All that counts is the numbers and the influence that events such as this will have on them. Its one of the limited opportunities one gets to see things in black and white.

And, well? Well the truth is actually Utd’s price for the first game of the season away at Bournemouth has been tumbling for some time. I may be wrong (and can’t check now) but I seem to remember Utd being something like 2.1 when odds were first published some weeks ago. They were also in the 1.8’s before the Charity Shield victory over Leicester and as of now they are 1.77.

This raises a couple of points.

If you had decided to put your money on Utd at the initial offering of 2.1 you would have made a nice profit should you be looking to cash out – and many of the factors which have driven this were forecastable, namely the signings of Ibrahimovic and Pogba. Couple this with the cocksure talk the talk style Mourinho brings, you can imagine the effect on the betting public.

The second point is this – it is a long game bet. The kind of which many punters will not be over the moon about sitting on for 3-4 weeks. As ever, this is about weighing up whether in that time period there were better opportunities to create a better return. Either way some patience is required.

Personally, I would regard backing the Utd price to go down during a period like this as a good stable investment. At this point the price is responding to reputation and a certain amount of hype – not results. By that reasoning, backing Manchester Utd through such a circumstance for a pre-kick off profit is logical and there are few better clubs to do this kind of thing with.

Having said that, these pre-season transfers and hyperbole applies to the whole game. More opportunities will throw themselves up via transfer and media sagas before kick off and prices will react accordingly – if you are able to get out in front of it there is opportunity to make a steady, low risk profit.

Quietrader

Here is a soccer betting system which might be of interest (among others) on the site.

 

For those who have been following The Championship for any length of time will know it is one of the most, if not the most unpredictable leagues in world football. Predicting a winner before the season starts generally entails consideration for half of the league. Predicting relegation is a little easier, although there are no guarantees here either. This is far removed from The Premiership – even with last years shock, you could still be reasonably confident of picking a winner from no more than 4 teams before a ball has been kicked. The monopolising situation that the big teams create is worse still around Europe and in the rest of the world generally. But The Championship is a league which bucks this trend altogether.

Anyone really can beat anyone, home or away. If the bottom team was 2-0 down and away from home against the top team, you wouldn’t be totally shocked if the game ended 2-3. It is a momentum league.

But what is the bottom line for those looking to enter the betting market here? Well, the unpredictability of results can be used to your advantage. One of the best ways to do this is via portfolio betting.

But what does that mean exactly? Simply put, it is having more than one bet running. In this case having multiple in play bets which are backing losing teams at the same time.

Example: Its Saturday afternoon and it is 30 – 40 mins in to the week’s games. These scores are occurring:

Norwich 3 – 0 Rotherham

Brighton 0 – 2 Newcastle

Bristol City 3 – 1 Cardiff

Now, you are likely to get something like the following prices for laying the leading teams: Lay Norwich @ 1.05, Lay Newcastle @ 1.2, Lay Bristol @ 1.2.

Lets say you lay at £100 for each bet: meaning Norwich is £5 on to win £100, Newcastle is £20 to win £100 and Bristol City is £20 to win £100.

Your total liability is £45. Your maximum win is £300.

You are left with this situation: if Brighton or Cardiff score the next goal within 25 mins or so, expect to be offered a cash out somewhere around £30 – £40. Of course this may not happen, but generally speaking in The Championship one of these teams will start to make a fist of it. The Norwich game is a good value long shot but will take a 2 goal swing to offer good cash out opportunities. At 1.05 however, it is good to have on the back burner.

This is where portfolio is important. Let’s say Brighton score just before half time and you cash out for £35. You are now -£10. However, your other running liabilities can now be turned in to assets if you are able to cash them out for a combined total of over £10. And this is the critical point.

You would probably expect to be cashing these out at a 25% – 40% loss. By this rationale you can take a £7 loss on the Cardiff game (and taking £13) and £2 loss on the Rotherham game (and taking £3). In total, this means you take back £16 after investing £25 for these bets. However, added to your £35 cash out win you are up £6, or 13% -which is a good return.

This is the great strength of portfolio betting – especially in The Championship. You are keeping liabilities small and you are giving yourself multiple possibilities of winning. Of course, there will be days when it doesn’t go for you, but generally, these are quite minimal in this league during a full fixture list. The point here is that you can keep losses reasonably small during these occasions. There will also be days when it really does go for you and multiple teams will start to make a comeback. Then it is really about knowing when to pull the trigger so to speak. These winning margins far outweigh the losing ones and that is always a good place to start.

Another point to make here. Generally, if a team is making good progress when coming back then you might want to think about letting the bet run. If you are offered a cash out of £50 for example, perhaps let play continue until the offer dips to no less than £40 – when sides get up a head of steam then this very often does lead to a late equaliser. It all depends on your profit and loss margins, so you need to keep tight reigns on these. A lot of this really depends on your mentality and what you consider to be most effective.

The best advice is often to pre-plan what is your maximum and minimal cash out points will be. This keeps things simplified and gives you a structure – this can then be fine tuned in to something which optimizes your profit making as you become better at it.

These articles might help with some of the aspects mentioned here:

For a run down of how to calculate your own odds go here.

For other systems and betting blueprints go here.

Enjoy!

This is a handy score sheet which, once filled out, offers a quick and efficient way of highlighting horses for a place finish. There are different ways to interpret this information, it could be included as part of a larger system or you may want to use it as the system entirely. Either way, it has provided a good platform when looking to highlight possible racing bets.

Open the document here. Once open, click ‘enable editing’ at the top so can fill in to calculate scores. If the horse ranks at 12 points or more and is on the market to place at 1.5 it might be worth a look. Enjoy!

This is a very handy thing to have up your sleeve when negotiating the markets. In short, it can help you evaluate the price which is being offered, enabling you to make an informed next decision.

So how do you do it? Its simple.

Lets look at a Soccer match – lets say Manchester United (home) are playing Stoke City (away) in the league.

Take Manchester United’s last 10 home games in the league. Note down how many wins, draws and losses they achieved in these 10 games.

Take Stoke City’s last 10 away games in the league. Again, note down wins, draws and losses.

Lets say:

Manchester United won 6, drew 3 and lost 1.

Stoke City won 3, drew 4 and lost 3.

Add together Manchester wins and Stoke losses = 9

Add together Manchester losses and Stoke wins = 4

Add together draws = 7

Now we simply divide these results by the amount of sample games, which is 20 (10 Manchester home, 10 Stoke away).

Manchester win = 9/20 = 45%

Stoke win = 4/20 = 20%

Draw = 7/20 = 35%

We simply divide 100 by our %’s to get the decimal odds.

Manchester win = 100/45 = 2.22

Stoke win = 100/20 = 5

Draw = 100/35 = 2.86

If, for example, Manchester United were priced at 1.8 to win the game we could make an informed decision that betting against them makes the most sense based on our calculated price of 2.2 or in fact, that the bet is just not worth making. Either way, backing Manchester to win this game offers no value.

This can be changes to suit individual needs – maybe you want to base it off more games, or include last seasons results between the teams. You also might want to include a ‘buffer’, so you would only make a bet if your calculated odds differed from market odds by more than 5% for example.

I have been sports betting for a number of years now, engaging multiple techniques and theories to help me get ahead. Some, as anyone who has done likewise will know, have been more successful than others.

One of the earliest of these, around the years 2011/12, is detailed in this article and provided me with a ‘breakthrough system’, where by my return become substantial enough to warrant that a good amount of my free time was spent on it: Starting with £30, my bank grew to over £3500.

Like all sports betting which consistently succeeds over a period of time, it took a little effort and some discipline. So first off, if you think you might be interested in exploring this technique and you suspect these factors may be a problem then they definitely will be. Read on by all means, but I would suggest that in practice this is not for you. Different styles suit different people and in my experience it is vital to approach sports betting in a manner which is convenient for your personality. Another word of caution: it is not at all glamorous. Sorry about that. Successful sports betting, for some reason, seems to be associated with driving a convertible down the Las Vegas boulevard, but it doesn’t really go like that. If one was inclined however, I think it is fair to say it is a more interesting way of making money than your regular 9-5 job (depending on how much you love your job of course).

So lets start from the beginning, and the beginning was the discovery of ‘lay’ betting. For those uninitiated in the specifics of sports betting jargon, ‘laying’ is when you bet on a team not to win. Essentially, this means in the mechanics of a soccer match, that if the team you choose to lay loses or draws, you win.

I was attracted to the prospect of this immediately, convinced there were big opportunities  to be had with the draw effectively on my side. Sometimes you just can’t see a team losing. As silly as it sounds I almost felt like I couldn’t miss and I didn’t for a while, although of course, I have many times and continue to do so. The trick of course is winning enough to offset the losses.

There were 2 questions which needed to be answered: ‘what circumstances do I need to be sure that the team I lay will not win?’ And the 2nd question: ‘what kind of return can I expect from a bet like that?’ For example, if a team is 3-0 down and I lay them then yes, I will almost certainly win (if that bet is still available) – but what is the return? Virtually 0 even on a decent size stake. So the solution as ever was the correct compromise between risk and reward. It is always about making the numbers work.

I felt that by stumbling across this system I answered those questions and found a better compromise than I ever had before.

So without further or do, after lots of testing, tinkering and trialing, here is the step by step guide in full:

The System.

1. Go through the next days soccer fixtures, pick out and make a list of: 

League Games only.

Home teams who are priced 1.55 – 1.95. (You will be laying the away team.)

2. Go to Soccerway.com (or another site where you can get stats on teams) and, referencing your list look for:

The home teams last 5 home games in that league.

The away teams last 5 away games in that league.

If the home team has a record of at least 3 wins and no losses and the away team of at least 3 losses and no wins (and no draw in their last game) then you have found yourself a match to monitor.

Keep hold of this now whittled down list and then order it by KO times. This should now contain home teams with the required home record in the last 5 games, priced between 1.5 and 1.95, and away teams with the required away record in the last 5 games.

3. You need to monitor the games ‘in play’ and wait for these circumstances (I did this on Betfair):

Lay the away team between 20 and 50 minutes in to the match if the home team goes 1-0 up.

If the home team goes 1-0 up before 20 minutes wait until the 20 minute mark anyway (very early goals can create less predictable playing conditions). You can lay the team after 50 minutes but the chances are the potential return will have diminished below 1/40 which is too low (£1 return on a £40 stake).

IMPORTANT – THE BET IS OFF IF: The away team scores first, or the away team equalizes before 20 minutes, or someone is sent off.

Out of a watch list of 10 games you can expect to write off between 5 and 8 of them as they do not throw up the required circumstances.

4. You should be laying the away team at somewhere between 1/10 and 1/35.

This means if you lay at 1/10 for example, you will be risking £10 to win £1 (£11 back).

Drawbacks.

Now, the first thing you are probably thinking is that you are getting a small return on investment. This pretty much flies in the face of all the professional advice about sports betting, which often maintains ‘your stake should always be lower than you potential return’.  This is a direct contravention of this.

Secondly, and this is the worst part – it is a time consuming system. Because the bet can only be made when a goal goes in, it is necessary to keep tabs on all of the matches on your list, reacting if and when a goal comes. On Saturdays, I had games starting in Japan at 8am right through until midnight in Brazil. However, this can be remedied with automation software such as Bet Angel which will place the bets for you. You will still however, have to  go through and highlight the games you want to target  – but it can take away some of the manual labor. If this system is working for you, you might get to the point where it is worth investing in this. It might also discourage greediness and ‘wandering’ outside of the system perimeters.

The numbers.

Small returns on your investment each time, yes. However, if you pick the games as described you should be looking to achieve a winning run of somewhere between 60 and 110 games. I have had winning runs over 140 games. I got to the point where I was wagering £500 to win between £15 and £60. So even though you might be getting say, a 1/20 return on your investment (5%) each time, you are betting on a 1/60 shot (2%), and this is where the value lies. Remember – it is vital that you manage your liabilities, so when the eventual loss does come you have profit to take away.

Managing liabilities.

To keep on top of your potential wins and more importantly, losses, I would suggest something like the below but you will get a feel for what works for you. This way will keep any losses small if you take an early hit. You can be more aggressive of course, but this is a good guide for starting out and you will never lose more than £30 of money you have invested. The first stage might be a little slow, but it will initiate you in the system before you are putting bigger stakes down, which is no bad thing. Remember, when the loss comes, cash your bank out. Have a break, take stock and re-evaluate.

Here is a scenario of what is in your bank, what to bet when at that stage, how many bets it is likely to take to reach the next stage and your minimum profit when taking a loss at that stage.

Firstly, invest £30.

STAGE            BANK                    STAKE                WINS NEEDED           WIN

STAGE 1.   £30 to £100 –       bet bank          (Approx 20-25 bets) (-£30)

STAGE 2. £100 to £150 –      bet £50            (Approx 10 – 15 bets)+£50

STAGE 3. £150 to £200 –      bet £75            (Approx 8 – 10 bets)  +£75

STAGE 4. £200 to £300 –      bet £100       (Approx 10 -15 bets)+£100

STAGE 5. £300 to £400 –      bet £150       (Approx 8 – 11 bets) +£150

STAGE 6. £400 to £600 –      bet £250         (Approx 9 – 14 bets)+£150

STAGE 7. £600 to £800 –      bet £350         (Approx 7 – 11 bets)+£250

STAGE 8. £800 to £1000 –   bet £400         (Approx 6- 9 bets)    +£400

STAGE 9. £1000+ –                   bet £500          (N/A)                              +£500

Hope this is helpful…

I hope this can be of benefit for any enthusiasts out there, or at least give some food for thought. There are many variations of this type of betting, but this particular system has been particularly good to me so I hope if you decide to use some or all of its tactics you can enjoy similar success. Please enjoy!

quietrader.com 

 

 

 

 

First things first: do not be be put off when I say the Kelly Criterion goes (bp-q)/b

It is not nearly as bad as it looks and it is a very handy calculation to bear in mind when managing your bank, especially when you have calculated your own odds. This formula tells you how much of your bank you should be betting on an event which has favorable odds (or you think has been overpriced).

OK, so what do the letters mean? This:

b = the decimal odds -1

p = probability of success

q = the probability of failure (1-p)

 

Here’s an example. Arsenal are 2.3 to beat Burnley at home. However, you have worked this out to be 2.0 (50% or 0.5).

So,

b = 1.3 (2.3 – 1)

p = 2.0 (0.5)

q = 0.5 (1 – 0.5)

 

Now,

(0.5 x 1.3 – 0.5) / 1.3 = 0.115 (11.5%)

So you should be looking at staking 11.5% of your bank on this bet. This seems high considering most pros will tell you to keep your liability to no more than 2%. However, different approaches can work for different people and if the ground work is correct, ie. you have calculated your own odds and found them to be favorable, then you have justification for taking an approach which takes advantage of that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For this technique you will need to access a ‘Dutching’ calculator which you can find here. ‘Dutching is a method used to divide stake over a number of selections in an event so that the same amount is won regardless of which selection wins’.

For this to work you need to place a bet on the following 3 (Soccer) markets. The calculator will give you a calculation something like this, telling you how to divide your stake:

0-0 (approx 8% of your stake)

1-0 (approx 14% of your stake)

Over 1.5 goals (approx 78% of your stake)

If any of these win you will make approximately 9% on your stake.

You may have noticed there is only one result which will cause you to lose: 0-1. Make sure you pick a strong home team who are the likely winners. If successful you can reinvest so you will win approximately 9% of a bigger pot.

Of course, the real edge here is if you are able to find better odds this way than simply laying 0-1. If you are, this can provide scope for profits in the long term.

Here is one for those who are able to ‘feel’ their way around certain games.

Generally, if you back against a game being 0-0 you are looking at a market number of 1.05. Alternatively, to lay the 0-0 is likely to give you a liability of somewhere between 12 and 15 to 1.

There has been various testing on this and it is estimated that 0-0 draws occur approximately 8% of the time  – note however, that this is measured from random games. With some research/knowledge you should be able to get a ratio of somewhere around 96%, especially if stick to big, well known high scoring teams.

This is a high win rate/large liability strategy which is worth considering if appealing to your betting style.

Here is a very popular strategy which has proven itself to be solid over time. If you are new to betting on sports then is this is a good system to learn.

How does it work? Much the same as many other systems, in terms of the teams which are involved need to be researched.

Let’s say we are betting on the over 2.5 goals market. We need to look at the two teams last 10 games:

How many goals does the home team score and concede on average at home?

How many goals does the away team score and concede on average away from home?

Add up the smallest (either conceded or scored) numbers between the two which gives us, lets say, an average of 2.3 between the two teams.

If we add up the higher numbers between the teams we might get 3.8 for example.

This gives us an average of approximately 3.1 goals.

If the average is over 2.75 you should bet with higher stakes on the ‘over 2.5’ market.

If between 2.6 and 2.74 then it is at your discretion, but smaller stakes should be used in any case.

Likewise if between 2.4 and 2.26 you might want to consider the ‘under 2.5’ market but only higher stakes should be used if the average is 2.25 or below.

If the average comes out between 2.4 and 2.6 then generally, the best advice is to steer clear. This also is applicable for the 1.5 and 3.5 markets.